A summer wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new dominant variant KP.3, could be on the horizon. However, the exact magnitude of this surge remains uncertain.
Rising Viral Activity in Multiple States
According to recent wastewater testing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Florida, Hawaii, and Montana have reported “very high” levels of COVID-19 activity. Meanwhile, Alaska, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, and New Mexico are seeing “high” levels of viral presence. Wastewater testing is an early indicator of increasing COVID-19 cases.
Current COVID-19 Trends
As of June 11, 2024, the CDC estimates that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 34 states and territories, declining in one, and stable or uncertain in 14 states and territories. Emergency department visits due to COVID-19 have also increased by 12.6% in the week ending June 8, though hospitalizations remain low.
“We’ve seen a steady stream of very sick COVID patients, but overall it’s still manageable,” says Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UCSF Medical Center. He notes that while hospitalizations may rise, they are unlikely to reach past peaks thanks to vaccines and treatments like Paxlovid.
The Emergence of KP.3 Variant
The recent uptick in COVID-19 cases is linked to a family of highly contagious variants known as FLiRT, characterized by mutations in the spike protein. KP.3, now the most prevalent strain, accounts for 25% of cases, surpassing the previously dominant KP.2, which currently makes up 22.5% of infections.
“The difference between KP.3 and KP.2 is an additional spike protein mutation, aiding in cellular binding,” explains Dr. Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention at the University of Kansas Health System. Despite the mutation, both variants share significant similarities, stemming from the JN.1 lineage.
Vaccination and Public Health Strategy
The prevalence of FLiRT variants is shaping vaccine strategy. The FDA recently recommended that fall COVID-19 vaccines target KP.2 instead of JN.1.
“Targeting any of these variants should still provide protection against severe outcomes,” asserts Dr. Chin-Hong, emphasizing the importance of vaccines in preventing hospitalizations and deaths, especially among vulnerable populations.
Recognizing and Testing for COVID-19 Symptoms
The CDC highlights common COVID-19 symptoms like congestion, sore throat, fatigue, and headache. Less frequent symptoms now include shortness of breath and loss of taste and smell, while some individuals experience nausea and diarrhea.
Dr. Chin-Hong advises that COVID-19 symptoms can resemble allergies or a common cold, making testing essential, particularly for those at higher risk. Testing early and consistently can help prevent severe disease with treatments like Paxlovid.
Factors Contributing to the Summer COVID-19 Surge
Several factors may contribute to the current rise in COVID-19 cases:
- Decreasing Immunity: Many Americans received their last vaccine dose months ago, potentially reducing immunity.
- Summer Behavior: Hot weather drives people indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.
- Increased Travel: With summer travel in full swing, more people are in close quarters, increasing transmission risk. Airlines project carrying 271 million passengers globally this summer, a 6.3% increase from last year.
“People should remain vigilant but not fearful,” says Dr. Chin-Hong. “With vaccines and antiviral drugs, everyone, including the immunocompromised and older adults, can navigate this surge effectively.”
Stay informed, monitor symptoms, and test when necessary to protect yourself and those around you from COVID-19.